In 1954, President Dwight Eisenhower became the first to offer the idea of the Domino theory when it came to the politics of the Cold War. The suggestion was based on the idea that Communism could create a domino effect within Southeast Asia. This theory would dominate much of the thinking and politics the US had towards Vietnam for more than a decade.
The Domino theory is based on the idea of what happens when a series of dominos are placed in a row. When they are close enough together, knocking one down at the start of the line can cause the entire line of dominoes to eventually fall over.
Eisenhower offered this speech at a time when the US was attempting to place colonial control back into Vietnam. Communist forces were on the verge of victory in taking over control of the nation from French forces and Eisenhower wanted to increase public awareness and support for the French in this conflict.
Why Was the Domino Theory Important for the Cold War?
According to Eisenhower, along with Kennedy and Johnson who supported the Domino theory, the idea that having a government become a dictatorship was something that would negatively affect Southeast Asia and the world at large. If Vietnam happened to fall into a dictatorship, then the rest of the region and the world was at risk for falling to Communism from a US perspective.
It wasn’t just political implications that Eisenhower saw as being at risk. There were also economic considerations that were in play. If Vietnam was taken over from the French by local Communists, then there was a possibility that access to local supplies that were being exported to the rest of the world could become unobtainable.
This included materials such as Sulphur, rubber, and jute.
From a political perspective within the US, the rapid disintegration of Southeast Asia would create problems for Indonesia and the rest of the APAC region. Eisenhower would even suggest that access to Japan would become problematic as they needed resources from Southeast Asia in order to engage in trade, which would then send products to the rest of the world.
What Was the Impact of Eisenhower’s Domino Theory?
The immediate impact of Eisenhower’s Cold War speech regarding the Domino theory was minimal at best. The Communist forces would be successful and this would create an agreement, hammered out at the Geneva Conference, that would create a division within Vietnam so that the Communists controlled the north.
The long-term impacts of the Domino theory were more profound. It put the United States into a protective role with the government of South Vietnam. Once war began to escalate after the border separation, the US stayed involved in the Vietnam conflict because of the fear of Communist impacts within the region and the rest of the world.
This allowed political support for the war to continue on until 1975, even though the US did not begin taking on a major role in Vietnam until 1964 after two US destroyers were attacked in the Gulf of Tonkin. In 1965, a rapid escalation of forces occurred until troop levels reached nearly 500,000 in 1967.
In 1968, the Tet Offensive was launched, with Communists attacking nearly all of the 44 provinces of South Vietnam. It would be the key that began reducing US participation in the war, with all forces evacuated in 1974 just before the fall of Saigon. More than 58,000 Americans were killed in this period of warfare, much of it due to the fear of what the Domino theory outcome proposed.
How Accurate Was the Domino Theory?
Many of the fears that were offered through the Domino theory during the Cold War proved to be unfounded. Although Communist governments were installed in a couple of surrounding governments at the conclusion of the Vietnam War, the overall influence of Communism in the region and throughout the world was very minimal.
Much of the Domino theory was based on the idea that Ho Chi Minh was simply a pawn of larger Communist regimes in China and Russia. US politics felt that the goal was to spread Communism, but for those in Vietnam, the only real goal was to promote national independence. Once that was achieved, there was no desire to keep spreading Communism.
In some ways, having additional Communist nations prevented the spread of this government. It created competitiveness between the allies of Russia and China, forcing each nation to deal with neighboring conflicts.
The Domino theory was just one potential outcome. Reality proved that other outcomes were possible.